Blog Post: Is The Sky Falling? A Look At Local Real Estate

“You block your dream when you allow your fear to grow bigger than your faith.”

This is a quote from Mary Manin Morrissey. And I thought this quote rather appropriate for a week when national news was bleak. Fear is no longer the silent elephant in the room - but is a grand participant in the endless blame game being played by both parties in our government. (Don’t worry - I’m stepping off my soapbox now!)

Our blog is about real estate. Specifically, about real estate in Northern Virginia. And sometimes even more specifically - about real estate in Vienna and Oakton. So let’s talk real estate.

Let’s listen to that quote again:

“You block your dream when you allow your fear to grow bigger than your faith.”

One of the “American Dreams” is of being a homeowner - of having your own place to call home. Everyone’s picture of what that means is different, but what’s in common is that it’s yours and it’s home.

This week, we got some pretty scary news about the credit rating of the United States. What does that mean for us in the long run? Does this mean things will never be the same? Will more jobs be lost?

I don’t know the answers to these questions, but I do know that I choose not to live in fear. I have faith in our country and I have faith in its people. Is there an easy fix to the situation? No. But I do know that we will figure it out. And we as a country, will come out the better for it.

Now what does this have to do with this week’s update about Vienna-Oakton real estate?

I would encourage you not to let fear block YOUR dream. Look at the facts. Ask your local expert realtor for the facts about the specific market you are interested in. Make educated decisions. Don’t be Chicken Little (“The sky is falling, the sky is falling”.) And don’t let fear stop you from making your dreams come true.

FACT: The Fed says they are going to hold interest rates down for two years. Will they keep their promise? I don’t know. But, if you’re thinking about buying - that’s great news for you. And why wait? Buy now. Rates and affordability are at historic lows. And even a half point increase in interest rates could reduce your buying power significantly - even if prices drop.

FACT: The market in Northern VA continues to experience low inventory. If you have been waiting to sell, NOW is a great time. Vienna and Oakton both continue to have pockets of Sellers Markets. (Check out the statistics below). There has also been a lot of discussion about “shadow inventory” because of the slowdown in the process of foreclosures coming to market. In the Vienna/Oakton area we have not seen the impact of foreclosures that other parts of the country have seen, but regardless of whether more is coming, now may be a good window of opportunity for sellers.

FACT: Financing IS available. Despite what you hear in the news about it being difficult to get mortgage money, the fact is that money IS available and on good terms. What has changed is the process. Where once upon a time you may have filled out an application & provided a few bits of verification, now the process may require you to provide all kinds of documentation: copies of W-2’s, tax returns, bank statements, etc. But the bottom line is that money is available. Working with a realtor who has long-term alliances with local lenders will also maximize your opportunities.

FACT: In a market that is changing daily, it is more important than ever that you have a very experienced realtor representing you - preferably a team - and one who has experienced the markets of the 70’s, 80’s, 90’s & today. You need every bit of creativity, experience & negotiating skill at work for you.

Curve balls are being thrown - but just like Frank Howard did, you can turn those curve balls into homeruns.

Frank Howard, for those of you who don’t recognize the name, is one of the leading homerun hitters in MLB history. He had a long, storied career, from Rookie of the Year, to winning a World Series, to four All-Star Team selections. He just celebrated his 75th birthday this week.

Why was he so good at what he did? One reason was talent. One reason was repetition & hard work. And another was attitude. At one point in his career, he was traded from pennant contenders, the Los Angeles Dodgers, to a weak expansion team, the Washington Senators. But what was his response? “I was essentially a fourth outfielder in L.A., hitting 25 home runs a year in the biggest baseball park in America and doing it on 400 at-bats.” He added, “What could I do if I get 550 at-bats? I had my best years here.”

In today’s market, it is more important than ever that you work with the “Frank Howard’s of real estate” - with those 20 percent of the agents that do 80 percent of the business - the ones who have seen so much, that seeing another curve ball is no big deal.

(Oh - P.S. - Guess which local real estate team includes someone who struck Frank Howard out 4 times in one game? Yes, that would be The Belt Team’s Jerry Belt pictured above! And boy has he taught our team a LOT!)     

(Second P.S. - Guess who had five at-bats in that same game? That would be Frank Howard. Before he struck out four times, he hit a homerun so far that it’s probably still going. )

So what has happened over the past few weeks in Vienna & Oakton real estate? Here are the highlights:

• Inventory in Vienna dropped slightly from last week, and is at its lowest level since early May.

• Inventory in Oakton also dropped slightly, but is above average for the year.

• Vienna’s contract rate remains slightly above the average we have seen for the year. Last week 21 homes went under contract. The average weely rate in 2011 has been about 18 homes. 

• Oakton’s market is much smaller. Only five homes went under contract in Oakton last week. This is just slighly below the average we have seen this year of six homes per week.

• Homes are still selling fairly quickly. Thirty-one percent of the homes that went under contract this past week, sold in 10 days or less. And the average days on market for those homes was 50 days. Average days on market for active listings in Vienna & Oakton is 103 and 92 days respectively - up slightly from last week.

• Vienna’s housing supply (based on the past 30 days contract rate) is only at 2.4 months, putting Vienna into the category of a Sellers Market. While Oakton, at four months, remains in a “balanced market”.

For our detail-oriented readers, here are last week’s stats:

Last week in Vienna Real Estate (22180,22181, 22182):

• Number of Contracts: 21
• Average Days on Market for Active Listings: 103 days
• Average Days on Market for Listings That Went Under Contract: 49 days
• Inventory: 225 homes on the market
• Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 90 day contract rate): 2.6 months
• Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 30 day contract rate): 2.4 months

Here are last week’s stats for Oakton Real Estate (22124):

• Number of Contracts: 5
• Average Days on Market for Active Listings: 92 days
• Average Days on Market for Listings That Went Under Contract: 60
• Inventory: 88 homes on the market
• Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 90 day contract rate): 3.5 months
• Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 30 day contract rate): 4 months