Blog Post: The Restaurant Is Full (And What That Has To Do With Real Estate)

Now that the calendar page has turned to November, we realize that Thanksgiving is just around the corner and that we have a LOT to be thankful for - especially here in Northern Virginia. I was reminded of that last night in chatting with a local restaurant employee who had recently come to our area.

He commented that “People who have not lived in other parts of the country over the past few years have no idea how good they have it here in Northern Virginia. They may feel like things are bad here, but things are great here compared to most other areas. Just look around. It’s Wednesday night and the restaurant is full.”

And that’s kind of how we feel about the real estate market. “Look around, it’s Wednesday night and the restaurant is full.” In other words, “It’s November of 2011 and in Vienna and Oakton and lots of other Northern Virginia markets, we’re still back and forth between a Seller’s Market and a Balanced Market.” No buyer’s market here. Not so many foreclosures. Yes, there are short sales - but not in numbers like you see across the rest of the U.S. Lenders are lending. And buyers are buying.

So let’s get down to the nitty gritty. What has happened in the last week in Vienna and Oakton?

• Seven homes went under contract in Oakton over the past week and 12 homes went under contract in Vienna. This is down from last week. And while this is slow for Vienna, it’s about the average we have seen each week in Oakton this year.
• Twenty-six percent of the homes that went under contract in Vienna & Oakton sold in 10 days or less. And 58 percent sold in less than 30 days. Remember the days when the average days on market was closer to 180 or more?
• Both Vienna and Oakton are back to teetering between a “Seller’s Market” and a “Balanced Market”. With a 3.6 month supply of homes in Vienna, Vienna is in a “Balanced Market”. While Oakton, with a 2.7 month supply of homes has moved back to being in a “Seller’s Market”.

This last statistic is an example that truly illustrates what the restaurant employee was saying to me. When we network with our colleagues around the country, which we do on a regular basis, we hear numbers that just blow our minds. Agents are reporting housing supplies of 10, 20 30 - even 40 or more months. This means that if buyers continue to buy at the rate they are buying, it would take almost four years for the homes to be sold. While here in Northern VA, the supply of homes would only last 3 to 4 months. Let’s count our blessings!

For our detail-oriented readers, here are last week’s stats:

Last week in Vienna Real Estate (22180,22181, 22182):

• Number of Contracts: 12
• Average Days on Market for Active Listings: 111 days
• Average Days on Market for Listings That Went Under Contract: 50 days
• Inventory: 224 homes on the market
• Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 90 day contract rate): 4.5 months
• Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 30 day contract rate): 3.6 months

Here are last week’s stats for Oakton Real Estate (22124):

• Number of Contracts: 7
• Average Days on Market for Active Listings: 95 days
• Average Days on Market for Listings That Went Under Contract: 82
• Inventory: 76 homes on the market
• Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 90 day contract rate): 3.6 months
• Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 30 day contract rate): 2.7 months

For more on local trends and numbers, visit The Belt Team Blog.